Choosing A Strategy

Above is a very cool video showing which empires held which territories in Europe from 1000ad to 2005ad.  While the video itself could be much better (no clock? no legend?), it provides a pretty great view of how empires rise and fall.

Take France.  A nice little territory with easy access to both the Mediterranean and the Atlantic, which in addition to serving as ready access to foreign trade, provides relative protection as well.  It is also sheltered by the Alps to the east and the Pyrenees to the south (and also had Spain serving as a buffer to African powers).   All of this natural defense lets Paris go on a thousand year run where it was rarely disturbed.  Not bad for the butt of every joke about surrendering.

England was in a similar situation: well protected on all sides, it had a long history of foreign peace (internal strife is another matter).

Italy is just the opposite: it’s open from nearly all sides, and has consistently been fractured into numerous city-states.

Then you have the rapid expanders: the Mongols, who swallowed up almost all of eastern Europe (and nearly all of Asia) in a single lifetime, the Germans, who conquered basically all of western Europe during WWII, and countless smaller empires.  These all became huge behemoths by sweeping through, and, usually because of more advanced weaponry or military techniques, decimated opponents.  But, they didn’t build any lasting ties.  They were quickly dissected, usually when one or two key leaders died off, or when a major tribute decided it was better off on its own.  Spread too thin, they eventually failed.

The Ottoman Empire and Russia, who became behemoths in their own right, took a different path.  They started with decent strategic locations, not with the natural protections that England or France had, but good enough.  The Ottomans controlled the key trade and shipping lanes from the west to the east.  The Ottomans built their empire rather slowly, losing territory at times, but building much stronger ties to the local people than the Mongols or Germans ever did.  Russia had vast natural resources, and the winters could dissuade any would-be invaders.  They too slowly expanded outward, assimilating locals as they went (until they didn’t, and quickly lost most of their fast gains).

While a lot more goes into why some empires were so successful than simply the area they held and the speed at which they expanded, this plays a surprisingly large role.

We don’t get to choose where we’re born or who we’re born to, but we do more or less get to pick our “starting position”.  Pick one with lots of natural advantages, either one that’s easily defensible, or that’s rich in natural resources (preferably both).  Consolidate as you go: build deep alliances with those you work with.  Don’t expand too quickly or try to do too much too soon.  You’ll almost certainly fail.

Lastly, think about all of the people, from the peasants to the great kings and conquerors that made this map possible.  They’re all dead.  While they had a pretty tremendous impact on the world, nobody knows who 99.999% of them are.  So don’t bother worrying about your legacy.  Worry about the people around you today.

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Marriage and Economics

Some interesting statistics about money and marriage from The Economist:

Marriage itself is “a wealth-generating institution”, according to Barbara Dafoe Whitehead and David Popenoe, who run the National Marriage Project at Rutgers University. Those who marry “till death do us part” end up, on average, four times richer than those who never marry. This is partly because marriage provides economies of scale—two can live more cheaply than one—and because the kind of people who make more money—those who work hard, plan for the future and have good interpersonal skills—are more likely to marry and stay married. But it is also because marriage affects the way people behave.

This economic difference also manifests when children are used as the measurement:

Most children in single-parent homes “grow up without serious problems”, writes Mary Parke of the Centre for Law and Social Policy, a think-tank in Washington, DC. But they are more than five times as likely to be poor as those who live with two biological parents (26% against 5%). Children who do not live with both biological parents are also roughly twice as likely to drop out of high school and to have behavioural or psychological problems. Even after controlling for race, family background and IQ, children of single mothers do worse in school than children of married parents, says Ms Hymowitz.

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Dieter Rams on Design: Understand People

Dieter Rams has been successful because he deeply understands people, both physically, psychologically, and how they operate in the world.  He’s not some sort of mind reader:

You cannot understand good design if you do not understand people; design is made for people. It must be ergonomically correct, meaning it must harmonize with a human being’s strengths, dimensions, senses, and understanding.

Vitsœ’s direct contact with its customers has led to a deep understanding of people. Over the years, our understanding of how you use a shelf or an armchair has increased. We have educated and diligent people worldwide who understand how to plan systems in configurations that our customers may not necessarily have thought of at the beginning.

Good design, like any business, requires constant contact and feedback from customers.  For more good advice, check out the whole speech.

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The Right Comparison

A noble man compares and estimates himself by an idea which is higher than himself; and a mean man, by one lower than himself. The one produces aspiration; the other ambition, which is the way in which a vulgar man aspires.

– Marcus Aurelius

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Creativity Is Not A Talent; It’s A Way Of Operating

John Cleese manages to explain about 90 different topics I’ve written about in a 13 minute span.  Below is a really, really excellent speech on fostering creativity, becoming more effective, managing time, and much more.  The short version is excellent, but the long version is definitely worth watching:

Note that Cleese’s other talks (in the youtube sidebar) are also fantastic.

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Dieter Ram’s Ten Principals of Good Design

Good design is innovative

The possibilities for innovation are not, by any means, exhausted. Technological development is always offering new opportunities for innovative design. But innovative design always develops in tandem with innovative technology, and can never be an end in itself.

Good design makes a product useful.

A product is bought to be used. It has to satisfy certain criteria, not only functional, but also psychological and aesthetic. Good design emphasizes the usefulness of a product whilst disregarding anything that could possibly detract from it.

Good design is aesthetic.

The aesthetic quality of a product is integral to its usefulness because products we use every day affect our person and our well-being. But only well-executed objects can be beautiful.

Good design makes a product understandable.

It clarifies the product’s structure. Better still, it can make the product talk. At best, it is self-explanatory.

Good design is unobtrusive.

Products fulfilling a purpose are like tools. They are neither decorative objects nor works of art. Their design should therefore be both neutral and restrained, to leave room for the user’s self-expression.

Good design is honest.

It does not make a product more innovative, powerful or valuable than it really is. It does not attempt to manipulate the consumer with promises that cannot be kept.

Good design is long lasting.

It avoids being fashionable and therefore never appears antiquated. Unlike fashionable design, it lasts many years – even in today’s throwaway society.

Good design is thorough.

Nothing must be arbitrary or left to chance. Care and accuracy in the design process show respect towards the consumer.

Good design is environmentally friendly.

Design makes an important contribution to the preservation of the environment. It conserves resources and minimises physical and visual pollution throughout the lifecycle of the product.

Good design is as little as possible.

Less, but better – because it concentrates on the essential aspects, and the products are not burdened with non-essentials.

Back to purity, back to simplicity.

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Creating False Memories

Ad men have known for years that they could make people feel good about a brand or product by telling happy stories.  It’s one of the reasons Budweiser spends tens of millions of dollars on advertising during the Superbowl.  They’re not exactly reaching a new audience (you think there’s anyone who watches the Superbowl who hasn’t heard of Bud Light?).  Instead, they’re reinforcing the message that young, fun, attractive people drink Bud Light when they want to have fun, which they hope will prompt you to pick Bud Light over Coors or the hundreds of other beers next time you’re shopping.

Several things are working to make you pick Bud Light.  First, it’s sheer repetition.  The Bud Light name and logo are seared into your brain after seeing them so many thousands of times that it’s the first thing you think of when you think of beer.  Second, you see a bunch of young, fun, attractive people drinking Bud Light at parties and social events.  Both of these combine to form a powerful motivator: you’ve seen (fictional) people enjoying this product that’s ubiquitous.  “It’s everywhere, and it’s what people seem to drink, so it’s probably good and I guess I’ll drink it too.”

It turns out that there may be an even stronger motivator.  New research indicates that it might be extremely easy to create false memories, even when the subjects know the memories they have never happened.  Psychologists Andrew Clark, Robert A. Nash, Gabrielle Fincham, and Giuliana Mazzoni conducted a three-stage experiment:

In Session 1 participants imitated simple actions, and in Session 2 they saw doctored video-recordings containing clips that falsely suggested they had performed additional (fake) actions. As in earlier studies, this procedure created powerful false memories. In Session 3, participants were debriefed and told that specific actions in the video were not truly performed. Beliefs and memories for all critical actions were tested before and after the debriefing.

The BPS Research Digest summarizes the study’s main conclusion: “The take-home finding is that for 25 per cent of the fake actions, the participants now reported significantly stronger memory scores than belief scores – in other words, their (false) memory of having performed the fake actions persisted even though they often no longer believed they’d performed the actions.”

I would not be surprised if this advertising had the same effect on our own memories.  We’ve all had that experience where we’re sure something happened, but are later confronted with proof that it happened some other way.  How much of that is just misremembering, and how much of that was planted?

That party that you had so much fun at where you drank 6 Bud Lights and finally had the courage to talk to that cute girl?  Maybe you weren’t drinking Bud Light at all.  Maybe your brain just switched the labels after the 400,000th commercial?

HT: Freakonomics

 

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Bertrand Russell’s 10 Commandments of Teaching

Perhaps the essence of the Liberal outlook could be summed up in a new decalogue, not intended to replace the old one but only to supplement it. The Ten Commandments that, as a teacher, I should wish to promulgate, might be set forth as follows:

1. Do not feel absolutely certain of anything.

2. Do not think it worth while to proceed by concealing evidence, for the evidence is sure to come to light.

3. Never try to discourage thinking for you are sure to succeed.

4. When you meet with opposition, even if it should be from your husband or your children, endeavor to overcome it by argument and not by authority, for a victory dependent upon authority is unreal and illusory.

5. Have no respect for the authority of others, for there are always contrary authorities to be found.

6. Do not use power to suppress opinions you think pernicious, for if you do the opinions will suppress you.

7. Do not fear to be eccentric in opinion, for every opinion now accepted was once eccentric.

8. Find more pleasure in intelligent dissent than in passive agreement, for, if you value intelligence as you should, the former implies a deeper agreement than the latter.

9. Be scrupulously truthful, even if the truth is inconvenient, for it is more inconvenient when you try to conceal it.

10. Do not feel envious of the happiness of those who live in a fool’s paradise, for only a fool will think that it is happiness.

HT: Brainpickings

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Leading With Lollipops

Inspiring video:

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How To Make Work Miserable

From The Progress Principle:

Over the past 15 years, we have studied what makes people happy and engaged at work. In discovering the answer, we also learned a lot about misery at work. …

What we discovered is that the key factor you can use to make employees miserable on the job is to simply keep them from making the progress they expect to make in meaningful work.

People want to make a valuable contribution, and feel great when they make progress toward doing so.

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If Money Doesn’t Make You Happy, You’re Not Spending It Right

This sentiment that money can’t buy happiness is lovely, popular, and almost certainly wrong:

Money allows people to live longer and healthier lives, to buffer themselves against worry and harm, to have leisure time to spend with friends and family, and to control the nature of their daily activities—all of which are sources of happiness (Smith, Langa, Kabeto, & Ubel, 2005).

Wealthy people don’t just have better toys; they have better nutrition and better medical care, more free time and more meaningful labor—more of just about every ingredient in the recipe for a happy life. And yet, they aren’t that much happier than those who have less. If money can buy happiness, then why doesn’t it?

Because people don’t spend it right. Most people don’t know the basic scientific facts about happiness—about what brings it and what sustains it—and so they don’t know how to use their money to acquire it.

Money is an opportunity for happiness, but it is an opportunity that people routinely squander because the things they think will make them happy often don’t.

So how should you be spending it?  According to the study, you should be sure to do eight specific things:

  1. Buy more experiences and fewer material goods;
  2. Use your money to benefit others rather than yourself;
  3. Buy many small pleasures rather than fewer large ones;
  4. Eschew extended warranties and other forms of overpriced insurance;
  5. Delay consumption;
  6. Consider how peripheral features of their purchases may affect your day-to-day life;
  7. Beware of comparison shopping; and
  8. Pay close attention to the happiness of others.

 

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Sleep on Concrete

Something Sebastian Marshall said to me a long while back has really stuck with me: sleep on concrete.

Anyone who has travelled a lot has literally done this at least once.  Baggage handlers go on strike and the airport shuts down?  Sleep on the nice, concrete floor (if you’re lucky).  Your flight is delayed and you miss the only flight of the day out?  Sleep on concrete.  Your bus, or cab, or friend, or whatever never shows up in some random connecting junction?  Sleep on concrete.  It sucks a little, you’ll definitely be sore the next day, but it’s not that bad.

Most people are used to sleeping in proper beds with proper linens and proper pillows.  If you yanked these people out of their beds and forced them to sleep on concrete, they’d be pissed.  Really, just the thought of the possibility of losing their comfortable bed keeps some people awake at night.  Sadly, it’s usually the people with the least to lose, the ones with the cot mattress and the threadbare sheets, that are most afraid of losing it.

For this reason, Seneca, whose wealth rivaled just about anyone but Nero, the emperor he advised, set aside at least one day each month to practice poverty.  He would dress in rags, abandon his estate, and live in the street.  All as a reminder to himself: “Is this what I used to dread?”  Seneca realized that comfort was the worst form of slavery, since the comfortable are always afraid that it will be taken away.

Of course the point isn’t about sleeping on concrete.  It’s about recognizing what you really need.  Once you realize that you can handle sleeping on concrete, literally or figuratively, a lot of opportunities open up.  The less you need, the more risks you can take, which means you can afford to go after the bigger rewards.

The trouble is, it’s pretty hard recognize what you need until you go without it.  All the hypothetical reasoning in the world doesn’t compare to actually having to sleep on concrete.

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Share

For several hundred years now, most businesses have fought to keep things secret.  Ingredients, techniques, processes, suppliers, you name it.  Anything that might be a competitive advantage would attempt to be shielded from competitors and the public.  In fact, the patent system was set up, in part, to curb this tendency: share your novel idea with the public and the queen will give you exclusive use of it for a certain period of time.

But does all this secrecy make sense?

In some cases, certainly.  Secrecy can can do all sorts of things.  It can build mystique, or protect something that legitimately gives you an advantage.

But most of the time, it’s not the secret that gives the advantage.  If it is, it’s probably not much of an advantage to begin with.

Take the fabled Coca Cola.  A recipe only known in whole to two people, who never travel together lest an accident or catastrophe cause the secret to be lost forever!  But what would happen if the real recipe got out?  Would Coke sales plummet?  After all, the recipe isn’t patented.  There would be nothing to stop competitors from manufacturing copy-Coke.  Sure, Coke could lose a few sales, but the effect would be negligible.  Coke’s secret to success isn’t its recipe.  Coke’s success is based on its ability to deliver a can of sugar-water to a village in the middle of Africa for 35 cents.  It’s a vast manufacturing, bottling, distribution, sales, and advertising network that’s so efficient it doesn’t even hum.  Coke’s success is based on trust in a brand.  It’s based on the product’s ability to make you feel a certain way.  It’s not based on the ingredients.

Ask any chef.  If the ingredients and the preparation were the key to their success, there wouldn’t be hundreds of new cookbooks published every year.  There’s no way literally every popular or successful chef would be willing to put all of their recipes in a book and sell it to anyone with $19 to spare.  It would be career suicide.  But of course, the ingredients and the preparation are not what make a successful chef.  Excellent recipes and preparation are necessary, but not sufficient.

So, recognize what is actually the key to your success.  What service or product are people actually paying you for.  It’s probably not the most obvious thing you do.  Once you’ve identified that, take a page from the chefs and share everything else.  Only good things will come of it.

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Disciplined Mindwandering, or The Benefits of Daydreaming

Jonathan Schooler, the psychologist who helped pioneer the study of insight, has recently begun studying the benefits of daydreams.  His lab has demonstrated that people who consistently engage in more daydreaming score significantly higher on measures of creativity.  To evaluate daydreaming, he gave subjects a slow section of War and Peace, and then timed how long it took them to start thinking about something else.  What these tests measure is someone’s ability to find hidden relationships that can help them solve a problem.  That kind of thinking is the essence of creativity.  And it turns out that people who daydream a lot are much better at it.  However, not all daydreams are equally effective at inspiring new ideas.

In his experiments, Schooler distinguishes between two types of daydreaming.  The first type occurs when people notice they are daydreaming only when prodded by the researcher.  Although they’ve been told to press a button as soon as they’re minds start to wander, these people fail to press the button.  The second type of daydreaming occurs when people catch themselves during the experiment.  They notice they’re daydreaming on their own.  According to Schooler’s data, individuals who are unaware that their minds have started wandering don’t exhibit increased creativity.  The point is that it is not enough to just daydream.  Letting your mind drift off is the easy part.  The hard part is maintaining enough awareness so that even when you start to daydream, you can interrupt yourself and notice a creative thought.

Productive daydreaming requires a delicate mental balancing act.  On the one hand, translating boredom into a relaxed form of thinking leads to a thought process characterized by unexpected connections.  A moment of monotony can become a rich source of insights.  On the other hand, letting the mind wander so far away that it gets lost, isn’t useful.  Even in the midst of an entertaining daydream, you need to maintain a foothold in the real world.

– Jonah Lehrer,  Imagine: How Creativity Works

Schooler actually buys what he’s selling.  Every day, he schedules his drive down to the Pacific Coast.  He leaves his iPhone in his car, and just walks, letting his mind wander.  He says it’s where all his best ideas are born.

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Lies, Happiness, and The Tyranny of the Biographer

Being happy in your life and being happy about your life are very different concepts. This is a result of the fact that you have, in a sense, two selfs. There is an experiencing self, who lives in the present, and a biographer self, who keeps score and maintains the story of your life. Getting these confused can make a mess of your happiness. Your experiencing self probably loves pizza and sex and drugs and video games.

But, those experiences are short lived, and your biographer self may have a hard time crafting a story that makes you happy about a life of nothing but pizza, sex, drugs, and video games. On the other side, many studies suggest that having children makes the experiencing self less happy but the biographer self more happy. Where is the balance?  Daniel Kahneman explores:

 

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